The Full Portfolio.

A pluralistic collation of strategies for the climate polycrisis

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Version 1.0 - July 2026. The polycrisis is a portfolio allocation problem, not a search for a single correct lever. Any framing that identifies one dominant intervention is making a claim about dominance that the evidence rarely supports. This infographic summarizes the key axes of assessment: Maturity, Time-to-effect, Scale ceiling, Binding constraint, Reversibility, and Fungibility.

1. The Position

Current long-term global warming is estimated at around 1.4°C, with current-policy projections falling from just below 4°C to just below 3°C.

  • Avoid Complacency: 2.3-2.8°C is a catastrophe.
  • Avoid Fatalism: Extinction is not locked in, and fatalism blocks tractable interventions.
  • Technology Deployment: Learning curves (Wright's law) are consistently under-estimated.

2. Energy & Tech

Renewable deployment has reached unprecedented scale, with 800 GW added in 2025.

  • Solar PV: Largest installed capacity globally; constraint is grid/land, not cost.
  • Battery Storage: 108 GW deployed in 2025; LFP accounts for 90%.
  • Grids: Interconnection queues are the true bottleneck; reform is severely under-weighted.

3. Political Economy

A pluralistic strategy must address how good policy is prevented, diluted, or looted.

  • Subsidies: Implicit subsidies reached $6.7 trillion (5.8% of global GDP) in 2024.
  • Integrity: Emergency-condition looting requires standing audit capacity.
  • Finance: Reducing the cost of capital in developing nations is the highest-leverage financial intervention.

4. The Human Layer

Human behaviour is a component with its own mechanisms and failure modes, not just a downstream detail.

  • Defaults: Opt-out beats opt-in; reducing friction is highly effective.
  • Information: The highest-leverage part of the human layer, currently operated by opposing actors.
  • Efficacy Beliefs: Fatalism is measurably demobilising.

The Lever Matrix (Select Priorities)

A look at the most critical and under-weighted items in the portfolio.

Lever Time-to-effect Binding Constraint Weighting Assessment
Methane Abatement (O&G) 1-5 yr Political will only (often cost-negative) Under
Grid Transmission / Permitting 2-10 yr Planning law, institutional capacity Severely under
Adaptation & Resilience 1-20 yr Finance Severely under
Information Environment 2-15 yr Regulatory will, speech trade-offs Severely under
Solar + Storage Deployment Immediate Grid, land, capital cost in EMDEs Appropriate
Cost-of-capital reduction (EMDE) 2-10 yr MDB reform, currency risk Severely under